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  • Writer's pictureTikona Capital

Back to Normal !

Updated: Sep 25, 2023

We celebrated Azadi ka Amritmahotsav, or 75 years of independence, at the start of the week. This appears to be the world's largest festival in recent memory. In his speech, the Prime Minister emphasized the need for a corruption-free India. We must work for amritkaal over the next 25 years as we approach 100 years of freedom. Vedic astrology uses the phrase Amrit Kaal to describe the ideal moment to launch a new business. Now is the time to put in the necessary work to attain more success.

We lost Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, a legendary investor. May his soul rest in peace. I learned about his sharpness and composure as an investor when I first met him in 2011 while working for Birla Sunlife Insurance.

Coming to the markets, NIFTY gained 2% in the last week, marking the fourth week of gains, in tandem with a rise in global markets. Metals and banks dominated this week (+3-5% wow), while FMCG and Pharma trailed. Midcaps also took part. Since the start of the earnings season, post-results profits have been downgraded by 3-5%. During the quarter, high inflation and input cost pressures reduced overall Ebitda margins in most industries. Concerns about global macroeconomic challenges, soaring inflation, and a slowing of demand have resulted in profit downgrades across practically all industries.

In India, inflation fell below 7% to 6.7%, indicating a weakening bias, although it remains over central banker comfort levels. While crude oil has corrected below $95 per barrel, inflation is expected to weaken. The NIFTY is only 5% away from its all-time high. Future inflationary pressures, as well as the global outlook and demand situation, are anticipated to determine the direction of the market.

Stay healthy! Stay Invested! Strengthen your portfolio during such times!

Sumit Poddar

Chief Investment Officer & Smallcase Portfolio Manager

Tikona Capital

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